India Puts the Indus Waters Treaty on Hold: What Will Happen to Pakistan Next?
India's decision to halt its involvement in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is a major geopolitical development that raises important concerns for the future of water sharing between India and Pakistan. A pillar of peaceful transboundary water cooperation, the convention was signed in 1960 under the auspices of the World Bank. Policymakers and analysts are keeping a careful eye on how India's daring decision could alter regional dynamics.
What is the Treaty of the Indus Waters?
Six rivers in the Indus basin were granted use when India and Pakistan signed the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960. Pakistan was granted rights over the western rivers, the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, while India was granted power over the eastern rivers, the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. The treaty has endured for more than 60 years as a unique instance of bilateral cooperation in the face of numerous conflicts and diplomatic difficulties.
What Caused India to Put the Treaty on Hold?
Amid rising tensions with Pakistan, India decided to halt the treaty, citing Islamabad's repeated protests against Indian hydropower projects and its claimed backing for cross-border terrorism. Pakistan has been "weaponizing" the pact, according to the Indian government, in order to impede the development of infrastructure in Jammu and Kashmir, particularly projects like Kishanganga and Ratle.
Despite continuing talks, Pakistan went to an arbitration court in 2023, prompting India to formally request changes to the treaty. A halt has now resulted from the situation, which could signal the start of a new chapter in India-Pakistan water diplomacy.
Consequences for Pakistan
Water security is Pakistan's top priority right now. Millions of people in Pakistan rely on the Indus River System for energy, drinking water, and agriculture. Any interruption or decrease in the flow of water from India might have disastrous effects on Pakistan's agricultural sector.
Furthermore, India might legally and without breaking the treaty lessen the flow into Pakistan if it decides to make the most of the eastern rivers and build more infrastructure on the western rivers.
Pakistan can also have difficulties in the diplomatic arena abroad. Without assistance from international players, Pakistan may find it difficult to internationalize the matter given India's preference for bilateral settlement and disengagement from multilateral processes like arbitration.
What's Next?
1. Renegotiation or Modification: Taking into account the geopolitical and environmental realities of today, both countries may go back to the negotiating table to update the treaty.3. Regional Water Crisis: The disagreement has the potential to grow into a larger South Asian water conflict if it is not handled wisely.